10% Growth, 0.2% Margin: The Paradox at the Heart of African Logistics
When a company with $18.3 billion in annual revenue and operations in 170 countries decides to form a joint venture in Nigeria, it is not making a charitable bet. It is reading a market.
CEVA Logistics and EFL Africa, Nigeria’s leading logistics provider, just launched CEVA EFL Limited, combining CEVA’s global freight network with EFL’s 140,000 square metres of inland container depot infrastructure across Ikorodu and Apapa, its barge operations moving containers from Lagos ports to inland locations, and its in-house customs clearance capability. The stated ambition: to transform logistics in Nigeria and West Africa.
The numbers behind that ambition are not soft. Nigeria’s ports handled 2.1 million TEUs and 129.3 million metric tonnes of cargo in 2025. That is not a frontier market. That is a logistics market that the world’s largest operators can no longer afford to treat as peripheral.
The Platform Is Coming Too
Uber Kenya has filed for a National Courier Operator licence with the Communications Authority of Kenya. The application, if approved, would allow Uber to deploy its existing driver network for parcel deliveries. Same app, same drivers, new revenue stream. No new infrastructure. No new hiring. Just a platform already embedded in Kenyan urban life, unlocking a second use case.
The signal here runs in 2 directions.
For riders already on the Uber platform, the courier expansion is a direct earnings opportunity. More job types, more hours, more income without switching platforms or acquiring new skills. The gig economy layer in African cities is about to get more layered.
For Kenya’s 351 licensed courier operators, the signal is less comfortable. Uber does not need to build a logistics network. It already has one. It just needs a licence to activate it. The companies that built their margin on being the only reliable option in a city where Uber already has thousands of registered drivers are about to discover what platform competition feels like from the receiving end.
Africa Is Going Long-Haul
Morocco’s largest airline has become the 2nd African carrier to operate a nonstop route to Los Angeles. The first was Ethiopian Airlines, a carrier that has spent decades building one of the most expansive route networks on the continent by treating African connectivity as a business imperative, not a government obligation.
The LA route is not just a status symbol. Nonstop long-haul routes between Africa and the world’s major commercial hubs reduce travel time, cut connection complexity, and signal to investors, buyers, and business travelers that the continent is serious about being physically accessible. Every new direct route is also a new freight corridor, a new trade lane, a new reason for a business to locate here instead of routing through a hub somewhere else.
Africa’s aviation market is growing at 10%, the fastest rate of any region globally. The demand is real and it is accelerating.
The Paradox in the Numbers
Here is where the story gets honest.
IATA has revised its net profit forecast for African airlines to $100 million for 2026, down from $300 million in 2025 and half of the $200 million estimate it gave just 6 months ago. Profit margins across the sector have compressed to 0.2%. Earnings per passenger have fallen to $0.40, from $2.10 the year before.
10% passenger growth. 0.2% profit margin.
Africa is simultaneously the fastest-growing aviation market on earth and the least profitable. The demand is not the problem. The cost structure is.
Jet fuel in Nigeria has escalated from approximately N900 to over N3,000 per litre. Currency volatility erodes revenues earned in local markets but paid out in foreign currencies. Financing for new aircraft comes at punishing rates when it comes at all. Hedging instruments that European and North American carriers use routinely to manage fuel and currency exposure are largely unavailable or unaffordable here. The infrastructure that makes an airline operationally efficient: reliable ground handling, functional maintenance facilities, consistent slot access, is uneven across the continent.
The same structural tension is visible in road and sea logistics, just less obviously. CEVA can bring its global network to Lagos. But if port congestion, customs delays, and inland road conditions continue to erode the efficiency of every container that moves through, the JV’s margin will be absorbed by the same cost layer that African carriers are already losing to.
Where the Real Opportunity Sits
This is not an argument against building in African logistics but an argument for building in the right layer.
The companies riding the demand wave gunning for more passengers, more TEUs, more parcels, will capture growth but fight thin margins until the underlying cost structure improves. The companies building the cost solutions are the ones that will define the sector.
Cold chain infrastructure that reduces spoilage and enables pharmaceutical and perishables logistics. Customs technology that cuts clearance times and reduces informal costs. Fuel aggregation and hedging tools tailored for smaller African carriers. Last-mile route optimization for urban and peri-urban delivery in cities where addresses are irregular and roads are unpredictable. Port management platforms that reduce turnaround time and dwell cost.
Each of these is a real business. Each of them makes the logistics market more profitable for everyone operating in it. And each of them is currently underbuilt relative to the scale of trade that is already flowing.
CEVA chose Nigeria because the demand is undeniable. Uber chose Kenya because the network already exists. Morocco chose Los Angeles because the route was viable. The entrepreneurs who will own African logistics over the next decade are the ones choosing the cost problems that, once solved, make all of those bets pay off.
Africa’s trade infrastructure is being rewired in real time — and the entrepreneurs who understand where the margin actually lives will be the ones who shape it. At the Business Week Afrika Summit on October 1st and 2nd, 2026, logistics, connectivity, and trade infrastructure are part of a bigger conversation about where African business is going and who is building the foundations. If you are in this space, or thinking about entering it, this is the room to be in.
#TwendeBWA