Collapsing Exports Deepen Kenya–China Trade Imbalance

Kenya’s trade gap with China has widened to a record high after a sharp decline in exports combined with a surge in imports, highlighting deep structural imbalances in the relationship.

According to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, exports to China fell by 35.7% in 2025 to KSh16.9 billion — the lowest level in five years. At the same time, imports from China rose by 16.5% to KSh671.2 billion, pushing the trade deficit to a record KSh654.3 billion.

What Caused the Export Collapse?

The drop in exports was driven by declines in key commodities that Kenya relies on. Titanium ores, a major export, were depleted after years of mining, macadamia exports were restricted to protect quality and allow maturation and other exports remain limited to low-value goods like tea, coffee, and scrap metal. This exposed a major weakness: Kenya’s export base to China is narrow and heavily dependent on raw materials.

Imports Continue to Surge

Meanwhile, Kenya’s imports from China are dominated by high-value manufactured goods, including machinery and industrial equipment, steel and construction materials and electronics and telecommunications devices.

These imports are tied to infrastructure development and business expansion, meaning demand remains strong despite the growing trade imbalance.

A Structural Trade Problem

China now accounts for over 24% of Kenya’s total imports, yet absorbs just 1.15% of its exports — highlighting a deeply unequal trade relationship.

Economists note this reflects a broader pattern; Kenya exports low-value primary goods; China exports high-value manufactured products.

This structure makes it difficult to close the trade gap without major changes in Kenya’s production and export strategy.

Why This Matters Now

The widening deficit comes even as Kenya pushes for better access to Chinese markets through new trade agreements and zero-tariff policies.

While these initiatives could boost exports in the long term, the latest data shows that policy changes alone are not enough without value addition, industrialisation and diversification of exports.

The Bigger Picture

The trend reflects a key challenge for African economies: balancing the benefits of affordable imports and infrastructure development with the need to build competitive export industries.

Without that shift, the trade gap is likely to continue widening — even as overall trade volumes grow.